| By Webmaster,
on November 30, 2008 04:42 PM 
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Favoured : None |
Published in : The News, The News |
Indeed, as I speak, central bankers here and across both the pond and the channel feel besieged by a seemingly insurmountable foe delivering retribution for our having been complacent, if not smug, during those happier days. Like Henrys troops at Agincourt, it may appear that we face overwhelming odds. Yet I am not overwhelmed.
Why not, you ask? How to trade commodities allows me to invoke another of your English ancestors in reply. Winston Churchill once asked: Why is it that the ship beats the waves, when they are so many and the ship is one? The reason is that the ship has a purpose. Tonight, I wish to give my view of the purpose of the Federal Reserve.
Needless to saybut I will say so anywaythe views commodity market trading I express this evening will be my own and not those of any other member of the Federal Open Market Committee or any official of the Federal Reserve System. This is but one mans soliloquy.
Last update: November 30, 2008 04:42 PM
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| By Webmaster,
on November 30, 2008 04:42 PM
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Favoured : None |
Published in : The News, The News |
In keeping with the tradition of rosy scenarios, official budget projections suggest this deficit will be relatively short-lived. They Fully Automated Forex System almost always do. According to the official calculus, following a second $400-billion-plus deficit in 2009, the red ink should fall to $160 billion in 2010 and $95 billion in 2011, and then the budget swings to a $48 billion surplus in 2012.
If you do the math, however, you might be forgiven for sensing that these felicitous projections look a tad dodgy. To reach the projected 2012 surplus, outlays are assumed to rise at a 2.4 percent nominal annual rate over the next four yearsless than half as fast as they rose the previous seven years. Revenue is assumed to rise at a 6.7 percent nominal annual rate over the next four yearsalmost double the rate of the past seven years. Using spending and revenue growth rates that have actually prevailed in recent years, the 2012 surplus quickly evaporates and becomes a deficit, potentially of several hundred billion dollars.
Doing deficit math is always a Trading Master Plan sobering exercise. It becomes an outright painful one when you apply your calculator to the long-run fiscal challenge
Last update: November 30, 2008 04:42 PM
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| By Webmaster,
on November 29, 2008 04:42 PM
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Views : 1 |
Favoured : 1 |
Published in : The News, The News |
Recent Developments in the U.S. Credit Markets
You are all well aware of the events that began to rattle the credit markets in August. Indeed, the media and analyst coverage of the market turbulence Apogee has been so extensive that you would have had to have gotten lost on the walking tour around Ayers Rock last July and just now found your way back to civilization to be unaware of subprime mortgages, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and the write-downs taken by several leading financial institutions. The disruptions to the orderly functioning of the financial markets have been significant, and the Fed and other central banks around the world have acted to keep those markets functioning. Beyond the troubles in financial markets, we have had an otherwise healthy economy in the U.S., with, thus far, the only other significant signs of weakening coming from continual corrections in the housing market.
The Federal Reserve took action in mid-August, first lowering the discount rate by a half percentage point at a specially convened session of the FOMC, making clear we, like all learned central bankers Trading for Beginners, had read Walter Bagehot. Then, at our regular September meeting,
Last update: November 29, 2008 04:42 PM
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